Experiment 04 / Flip Point

How far until
the answer flips?

Keep four readings and a target still. Move the fifth reading. The mean and median respond differently, and the closer estimate can change more than once. Find every exact turning point.

The moving observation

One reading changes the story.

Slide from 0 to 100, or type an exact value. A solid line is a winner reversal; a dotted line is a tie that only touches the boundary. Jump to a reversal, then cross it.

Case B / mean wins
  1. 40
  2. 42
  3. 50
  4. 60
  5. 68

Chosen reference target: 52 · the target stays fixed in this experiment.

0100
Who is closer, across all fifth readings?Current reading: rose marker
0255075100
Mean closerMedian closerReversalTie without reversal

18 reversal · 48 reversal · 58 reversal · 78 reversal

Move 10 to reach the nearest reversal boundary at 58. Step across it to change the winner.

Mean / absolute error52 / 0
Median / absolute error50 / 2
Distance from each estimate to the targetLower curve wins · fifth reading →
157.50050100
Mean errorMedian error

Why these boundaries are exact: mean = (40 + 42 + 50 + 60 + fifth reading) ÷ 5; median = clamp(fifth reading, 42, 50). Solve when their distances to the chosen target match. A tie can touch without reversing the winner.

Three different shapes

Try another case

Use the three-case student sheet to predict the original outcomes, then return here to ask how much one reading must change.

Carry the experiment

Share an exact view

The link preserves the four fixed readings, moving fifth reading, and chosen target. A recipient can inspect every boundary and move the fifth reading again.

Use invented or public data; all six numbers are visible in the URL. The target is a chosen reference, not a measured truth. The calculation runs in your browser.